
Coastal Habitat Retreat Risks Above 1.5°C Warming
Coastal ecosystems, such as mangroves and tidal marshes, adapt to rising sea levels through carbon sequestration and sediment trapping, but their persistence faces challenges.
Research suggests that the probability of these ecosystems adjusting to sea-level rise (RSLR) matches contemporary measurements, but a deficit in their adaptation is likely at 4 mm/year and highly likely at 7 mm/year of RSLR.
When RSLR surpasses 7 mm/year, there's an increased risk of destabilization for reef islands due to erosion and wave over-topping.
With increased global warming, the area exposed to RSLR would substantially increase, with potential widespread impact by 2100 if warming reaches 3°C.
Adhering to the Paris Agreement goals could mitigate disruptions and protect these coastal ecosystems.