Projecting Future Bleaching Conditions : IPCC CMIP6 Models

The report examines the increasing threat to coral reefs due to bleaching events, informed by the CMIP6 climate models.

The longest bleaching event (2014-2017) suggests future similar events may become a norm, with annual severe bleaching (ASB) being a considerable concern. The timing of ASB differs geographically, influencing the relative vulnerability of different coral reef ecosystems. Notably, temporary refugia may provide critical preservation and restoration opportunities.

Two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP5-8.5 and SSP2-4.5) represent the worst-case scenario and an ambitious but plausible future, respectively, informing the projections.

The findings indicate that coral reefs will face substantial challenges despite successful mitigation efforts. Although plausible, an assumption of coral adaptation doesn't significantly alleviate the potential damage.

Further research is recommended to refine projections and strategies for reef conservation.