Upwelling, climate change, and coral reef development

According to Rodriguez-Ruano et. al.,

"The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years.

Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC) however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth.

We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC.

With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year&minus 1, reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO2 emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories.

With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year&minus 1, reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year&minus 1). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases."